Trzaskowski has promised to work closely with the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, allowing it to push through a legislative agenda currently blocked by incumbent President Andrzej Duda, allied with PiS.

“With a president from the same camp, Tusk’s coalition could finally pass long-promised reforms, provided the four-party coalition can agree on them internally,” said Joanna Sawicka, a political analyst with Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based think tank. “Key issues like abortion law liberalization may still face significant hurdles in parliament, even with the presidency secured.” 

A Nawrocki victory would deal a significant blow to the Tusk government, which would face another adversarial president likely to block key legislative proposals.

“Nawrocki’s presidency means a high-level conflict between the president and Tusk. But it’s clear that it will be difficult for the government to implement key reforms because the president can veto most of them,” said Sawicka.

Nawrocki battled a cascade of revelations about his past including accusations that he helped arrange prostitutes for guests of a luxury hotel while working as a security guard, that he took part in fights as a football hooligan and that he acquired an apartment from a pensioner under questionable circumstances.

Conservative voters strongly backed Nawrocki, worried about Trzaskowski’s liberal record as mayor of Warsaw, where he supported LGBTQ+ rights and was out of step with the powerful Roman Catholic Church hierarchy. 

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